Small Business Outlook: Small Businesses Stay Confident as Growth Plans, Sales Stall

Confidence among small business owners, especially among higher revenue earners and AI adopters, remains elevated and gas prices in May curbed Main Street’s plans for growth.

Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.

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ICYMI: As the United States approaches its 250th anniversary, U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Suzanne P. Clark unveiled a bold vision for how the business community can help shape the nation’s next chapter. Watch here.

New Small Business Data

Intuit QuickBooks 2026 AI Impact Report (June 18, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small businesses use AI as a competitive advantage, especially among growth-oriented firms.

• 77% of small businesses in the U.S. use AI regularly (29 points higher than 2024).
• 78% of small businesses say AI has improved their productivity (32 points higher than 2024).
• 43% of small businesses say AI has increased their revenue and 2% say it has reduced revenue.
• 17% of small businesses report that AI has increased hiring (4 times the amount of small businesses that report AI has replaced workers).
• 27% of small businesses report that AI has shortened their workdays (3 points higher than 2025) and 8% report that AI has made their workdays longer (3 points lower than 2025).
• 86% of small businesses that paid for AI in 2024 are keeping (and paying for) the technology.
• Growth-oriented small businesses are twice as likely to invest in AI as lifestyle-oriented firms.

Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (June 18, 2026)

Insight Summary: Higher gas prices continued to hit small businesses hard through May.

• Aggregated credit and debit gas spending per small business client is up 34% compared to a year ago in May (3 points higher than April).
• The share of gasoline in total small business credit and debit continued to rise in May and now accounts for 1/3 of the total card spending share.
• Profitability in the following sectors flipped from negative in April to positive in May: construction, finance, and manufacturing.
• Payroll shrank for small businesses compared to May of 2025 except for the following sectors: restaurants and bars; museums, art galleries, and gardens.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Foundation Main Street AI Monitor (June 17, 2026)

Insight Summary: Employees are driving AI usage at small businesses.

• 43% of small businesses with 2-9 employees use AI for work tasks, and 59% of small businesses with 100-249 employees use AI for work tasks.
• 50% of small business employees use AI at work and of those who use it, 58% report using AI regularly.
• Among small business employees who use AI at work:
  • 59% use AI to complete more work or improve quality.
  • 43% use AI for learning, planning, or reviewing existing tasks.
  • 27% use AI to take on additional responsibilities or stretch assignments.
• Among small business employees who use AI and do knowledge-based work (not manual or physical labor):
  • 90% use AI for writing and editing communications.
  • 88% use AI for research and information gathering.
  • 86% use AI for technical and coding work.
  • 85% use AI for creative tasks such as design.
• 19% of small business employees say that use of AI at work is driven primarily by employees exploring AI tools on their own, and 11% say that AI use is directed by the owner or leadership.
• 10% of small business employees have received formal AI training from their employer.
• When asked about barriers for adoption:
  • 47% cite privacy or security concerns.
  • 41% are unclear how AI applies to their specific job.
  • 41% cite lack of skills or training.

Constant Contact 2026 Small Business Now Report (June 10, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small business owners use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) for marketing is skyrocketing and is blurring the distinction between content creators and business owners.

• The good news is that U.S. consumer preference for shopping at small businesses has risen from 10% in 2021 to 27% in 2026. Bad news is that 49% of consumers are scaling back spending due to inflation.
• 73% of small business owners now identify as content creators and 47% of small business owners handle all their social media management on their own.
• AI features prominently in small business marketing, with 87% of small business owners using AI marketing tools (compared to 26% in 2023) and 40% using AI automation tools for managing their marketing workload.

National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) May Optimism Index (June 9, 2026)

Insight Summary: High prices are forcing more small businesses to raise prices and sales expectations are scaled back.

• 29% of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in May (5 points lower than April), marking the lowest level in 6-years, but still above the historical average of 24%.
• 9% of small business owners plan on creating new jobs in the next 3 months (4 points lower than April and the lowest point in 6-years. This historical average is 11%.
• 14% of small business owners cite labor costs as their single most important problem (5 points higher than April), which is the highest reading ever.
• 55% of small business owners reported hiring or trying to hire in May (2 points higher than April) and 84% of those who hired or tried to hire reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill (unchanged from April).
• 31% of small business owners raised compensation in May (up 1point since April) and 18% plan on raising compensation in the next 3 months (unchanged from April). Compensation levels remain above historical averages.
• 3% of small business owners expect better business conditions in the next 3-months (1 point lower than April and the 5^th consecutive monthly decline).
• 7% of small business owners believe it is a good time to expand their business (unchanged from April and the lowest level since Halloween 2-years ago.).
• -5% of small businesses reported higher sales in the past 3-months (3 points higher than April) and 1% expect higher sales in the next 3-months (2 points lower than April and the lowest percentage in over a year).
• 36% of small businesses raised their prices in May (6 points higher than April and the highest level since March 2023). 34% are planning on raising prices in the next 3-months (7 points higher than April and the highest reading since July 2022).
• 55% of small businesses reported capital outlays in the last 6 months (4 points higher than April) and 16% are planning capital purchases in the next 6-months (1 point lower than April and lowest point since March 2009).
• -3% of small business owners expect better credit conditions in the next 3-months (1 point better than April).
• Small businesses paid an average rate for short maturity loans of 7.8% in May (0.5 points lower than April) and 27% of small business owners report borrowing on a regular basis (5 points higher than April).

Fiserv April Small Business Index (June 3, 2026)

Insight Summary: Consumer spending stalled for 2^nd consecutive month.

• Month over month sales at small businesses were flat for two consecutive months in May (0.0% change) and year over year sales continued to go up (+0.7% change).

FedEx Small Business Trade Index (May 21, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small businesses remain bullish on trade amidst tariff uncertainty.

• 91% of small business decision makers favor expanding trade and 87% believe trade creates jobs, improves business prospects, and boosts the economy.
• More than 84% of small business decision makers agree that technology is making trade more efficient.
• 46% of small business decision makers plan on investing in technology in the next 12-months to better manage international logistics, customs, or compliance.
• 30% of small business decision makers cite local customers as the reason why the business does not export goods or services followed by tariffs (25%) and too many regulations (12%).
• 44% of small business decision makers are holding inventory in response to global disruptions and 36% are sourcing back to the U.S.

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (May 20, 2026)

Insight Summary: Plans for capital spending level off and expectations for revenues and profitability continue downward.

• 15% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (2 points lower than April) and 44% say the economy has gotten worse (2 points better than April).
• 25% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (1 point worse than April) and 34% believe the economy will worsen (8 points better than April).
• 47% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (1 point lower than April) and 11% plan on decreasing employees (1 point higher than April).
• 33% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (4 points higher than April) and 47% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
• 57% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points higher than April) and 14% believe revenues will decrease (4 points worse than April).
• 43% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (no change from April) and 21% believe that profitability will decrease (2 points worse than April).

Blue Vine Small Business Survey (May 19, 2026)

Insight Summary: Small business ownership is not for the faint hearted.

• 62% of small business owners have reduced or skipped their own pay at least once in the last 12-months to cover business expenses. 21% of small business owners reduced or skipped paying their own salaries 4 or more times over the past year.
• 68% of small business owners lose at least one full night of sleep per month over cash flow concerns, and 13% lose 6 or more nights of sleep per month.
• 41% of small business owners say their biggest source of financial anxiety is the gap between receiving income and when bills are due. 25% say their biggest anxiety is paying taxes. 22% cite tracking expenses and bookkeeping as their top financial stressors and 20% cite payroll as their top stressor.

Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (May 19, 2026)

Insight Summary: Higher gas prices hit small businesses hard.

• Small business profitability fell 1.3% year over year in April, the weakest reading in 2-years.
• Small business spend on gasoline rose 31% year over year in April, with the increase hitting agriculture, transportation, and construction sectors the hardest.
• While payroll growth is lower across the board for small businesses compared to 2025, the following sectors experienced payroll growth in April: Agriculture; Retail; Health Services; Transportation.
• San Antonio and Dallas experienced highest small business payroll growth in April and Las Vegas and Phoenix were the lowest.

2026 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q1 Cash Flow Trend Report (May 1, 2026)

Insight Summary: Confidence among small business owners in Q1 remained high and AI adoption continued its upward climb.

• 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point lower than last quarter) and 29.5% anticipate significant growth (0.4% points higher than last quarter).
• 31% of small business owners cited cash flow as their highest concern (2 points higher than last quarter), surpassing inflation (29%).
• 34% of small business owners reported negative financial impacts from tariffs and 43% reported that tariffs did not impact their business financially. Of those negatively impacted, 69% passed on price increases to customers and 22% found alternative suppliers.
• 58% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations (2 points higher than last quarter).

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q1 (April 7, 2026)

Summary: Confidence continues downward based on concerns over inflation. Plans for future hiring and investment dropped markedly, reflecting Main Street employers’ concern for the future state of the economy. Note: Survey was in the field during the military action against Iran.

• 69% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (no change from last quarter) and 72% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 36% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (7 points lower than last quarter) and 33% are negative (5 points worse than last quarter).
• 28% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (10 points lower than last quarter) and 50% are negative (6 points worse than last quarter).
• 53% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (8 points higher than last quarter and the 17^th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 37% of small business owners expect to increase investment in their business in the upcoming year (7 points lower than last quarter).
• 61% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 16% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (8 points less than last quarter) and 60% reported keeping the same number of staff.
• 30% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (12 points lower than last quarter) and 60% expect to maintain current staffing levels (11 points higher than last quarter).
• 19% of small business owners cited affordability of employee benefits or healthcare as their top concern (highest level in Index’s history (9 years)).

Gallup’s American Job Quality Study (March 31, 2026)

Summary: Self-employed business owners benefit from higher job satisfaction and higher quality of life when compared with W-2 employees.

• Self-employed owner-operators or independent contractors make up 14% of the U.S. workforce.
• 46% of self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have “quality jobs” compared with 39% of W-2 employees.
• More self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have more agency and voice, autonomy, and greater financial well being than W-2 employees.
• Fewer self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have better workplace culture & safety, better growth & development, and healthcare & retirement benefits than W-2 employees.
• The average self-employed owner-operator and independent contractor logs 49 hours per week compared to 43 hours for W-2 employees.

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The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

Watch Tom Sullivan talk all things small business with Jim Fitzpatrick on ASBN (America's Small Business Network), including the latest news and policy updates for Main Street business owners. New episodes are added every month so that you can watch them anytime.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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