Small Business Outlook: Small Businesses Stay Confident as Growth Plans, Sales Stall

Small business confidence is steady while plans for growth stall in the current environment of high prices and uncertainty.

Tariff Refund FAQ Guide: Visit this guide for information to help small businesses identify whether they paid IEEPA‑based tariffs and prepare for the emerging refund process.

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New Small Business Data

National Federation of Independent Business Industry Specific Report (May 27, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Data gathered from February 2026 to April 2026 - small business confidence in their own firms remains steady and expectations for sales increases drops across all sectors.
• 19% of small businesses in construction plan to hire in the next 3-months (2 points lower than last quarter) and 6% expect sales to increase (17 points lower than last quarter).
• 11% of small construction firms (compared to 7% of all firms) believe now is a good time to expand (9 points lower than last quarter).
• 19% of small businesses in manufacturing plan to hire in the next 3-months (5 points lower than last quarter) and 10% expect sales to increase (14 points lower than last quarter).
• 8% of small manufacturers (compared to 7% of all firms) believe now is a good time to expand (11 points lower than last quarter).
• 9% of small businesses in retail plan to hire in the next 3-months (1 point higher than last quarter) and 9% expect sales to increase (7 points lower than last quarter).
• 4% of small retailers (compared to 7% of all firms) believe now is a good time to expand (3 points lower than last quarter).
• 18% of small businesses in the services sector plan to hire in the next 3-months (2 points higher than last quarter) and 12% expect sales to increase (6 points lower than last quarter).
• 5% of small service firms (compared to 7% of all firms) believe now is a good time to expand (8 points lower than last quarter).

FedEx Small Business Trade Index (May 21, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Small businesses remain bullish on trade amidst tariff uncertainty.
• 91% of small business decision makers favor expanding trade and 87% believe trade creates jobs, improves business prospects, and boosts the economy.
• More than 84% of small business decision makers agree that technology is making trade more efficient.
• 46% of small business decision makers plan on investing in technology in the next 12-months to better manage international logistics, customs, or compliance.
• 30% of small business decision makers cite local customers as the reason why the business does not export goods or services followed by tariffs (25%) and too many regulations (12%).
• 44% of small business decision makers are holding inventory in response to global disruptions and 36% are sourcing back to the U.S.

WSJ/Vistage Small Business Small Business CEO Confidence Index (May 20, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Plans for capital spending level off and expectations for revenues and profitability continue downward.
• 15% of small business owners say the economy has improved compared to a year ago (2 points lower than April) and 44% say the economy has gotten worse (2 points better than April).
• 25% of small business owners believe the economy will improve in the next 12 months (1 point worse than April) and 34% believe the economy will worsen (8 points better than April).
• 47% of small businesses plan on increasing employees in the next 12-months (1 point lower than April) and 11% plan on decreasing employees (1 point higher than April).
• 33% of small businesses are expecting to increase fixed investments (4 points higher than April) and 47% expect fixed expenditures to remain the same.
• 57% of small businesses expect increased revenues in the next 12 months (2 points higher than April) and 14% believe revenues will decrease (4 points worse than April).
• 43% of small business owners believe profitability will increase in the next 12 months (no change from April) and 21% believe that profitability will decrease (2 points worse than April).

Bank of America Institute Small Business Checkpoint (May 19, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Higher gas prices hit small businesses hard.
• Small business profitability fell 1.3% year over year in April, the weakest reading in 2-years.
• Small business spend on gasoline rose 31% year over year in April, with the increase hitting agriculture, transportation, and construction sectors the hardest.
• While payroll growth is lower across the board for small businesses compared to 2025, the following sectors experienced payroll growth in April: Agriculture; Retail; Health Services; Transportation.
• San Antonio and Dallas experienced highest small business payroll growth in April and Las Vegas and Phoenix were the lowest.

Fiserv April Small Business Index (May 4, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Consumer spending stalled in April.
• Month-over-month sales at small businesses were flat in April (0.0% change) and year-over-year sales at small businesses continued to go up (+1.1% change).

2026 OnDeck + Ocrolus Small Business Q1 Cash Flow Trend Report (May 1, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Confidence among small business owners in Q1 remained high and AI adoption continued its upward climb.
• 93% of small businesses anticipate moderate to significant growth over the next year (1 point lower than last quarter) and 29.5% anticipate significant growth (0.4% points higher than last quarter).
• 31% of small business owners cited cash flow as their highest concern (2 points higher than last quarter), surpassing inflation (29%).
• 34% of small business owners reported negative financial impacts from tariffs and 43% reported that tariffs did not impact their business financially. Of those negatively impacted, 69% passed on price increases to customers and 22% found alternative suppliers.
• 58% of small business owners have incorporated Artificial Intelligence (AI) into their operations (2 points higher than last quarter).

TD Bank: Financial Preparedness Survey of Small Business Owners (April 28, 2026)

• Insight Summary: Small business owners remain confident, are optimistic the economy will improve, and are using AI for efficiency.
• 94% of small business owners feel they are financially prepared for the next 12 to 18 months.
• 34% of small business owners believe that a business should have 6-months of reserves to be considered “financially prepared” and 24% of small business owners have more than 6-months of emergency savings to cover operating expenses.
• 74% of small business owners are optimistic that the economy will improve over the next 12 to 18 months.
• 54% of small business owners report their business has experienced fraud or attempted fraud in the past year and 12% report that it resulted in financial loss.
• 69% of small business owners report their use of AI to reduce expenses up from 39% a year ago.

U.S. Chamber of Commerce Small Business Index for Q1 (April 7, 2026)

Summary: Confidence continues downward based on concerns over inflation. Plans for future hiring and investment dropped markedly, reflecting Main Street employers’ concern for the future state of the economy. Note: Survey was in the field during the military action against Iran.

• 69% of small businesses are confident in the health of their own business (no change from last quarter) and 72% are comfortable with their current cash flow (2 points lower than last quarter).
• 36% of small business owners are positive about the health of their local economy (7 points lower than last quarter) and 33% are negative (5 points worse than last quarter).
• 28% of small business owners are positive about the nation’s economic health (10 points lower than last quarter) and 50% are negative (6 points worse than last quarter).
• 53% of small business owners rank inflation as their top concern (8 points higher than last quarter and the 17^th consecutive quarter where inflation tops the list).
• 37% of small business owners expect to increase investment in their business in the upcoming year (7 points lower than last quarter).
• 61% of small business owners expect to increase revenue in the next year (4 points lower than last quarter).
• 16% of small business owners reported adding staff over this past year (8 points less than last quarter) and 60% reported keeping the same number of staff.
• 30% of small business owners expect to increase staff in the next year (12 points lower than last quarter) and 60% expect to maintain current staffing levels (11 points higher than last quarter).
• 19% of small business owners cited affordability of employee benefits or healthcare as their top concern (highest level in Index’s history (9 years)).

Gallup’s American Job Quality Study (March 31, 2026)

Summary: Self-employed business owners benefit from higher job satisfaction and higher quality of life when compared with W-2 employees.

• Self-employed owner-operators or independent contractors make up 14% of the U.S. workforce.
• 46% of self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have “quality jobs” compared with 39% of W-2 employees.
• More self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have more agency and voice, autonomy, and greater financial well being than W-2 employees.
• Fewer self-employed owner-operators and independent contractors believe they have better workplace culture & safety, better growth & development, and healthcare & retirement benefits than W-2 employees.
• The average self-employed owner-operator and independent contractor logs 49 hours per week compared to 43 hours for W-2 employees.

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The U.S. Chamber's SVP of Small Business Policy Tom Sullivan appears regularly on ASBN - America's Small Business Network and hosts a weekly podcast to deliver fresh insights on small business to viewers and listeners nationwide.

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About the author

Thomas M. Sullivan

Thomas M. Sullivan is senior vice president of small business policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Working with chambers of commerce and the U.S. Chamber’s nationwide network, Sullivan harnesses the views of small businesses and translates that grassroots power into federal policies that bolster free enterprise and reward entrepreneurship. He runs the U.S.

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